Preview - Italy v Scotland

Of all tribes the Romans found the Scots most troublesome. Of all Six Nations countries, the Italians have found the Scots least troublesome. Italy's first Six Nations victory was over Scotland.

Mirco Bergamasco: The 'find' of the Six Nations

In ancient times Hadrian and Antoninus Pius built their walls they did so to keep the troublesome Scots at bay, but the modern Rome will welcome the visit of the kilted men from Caledonia stern and wild to the milder climes of Rome and a contest in the Stadio Flaminio, and the Scots may find the cool Rome air full of the warmth of spring in comparison to their harsher weather of late.

All in all the visit should be an hospitable one.

Italy has established itself as no push-over in this year's Six Nations. Never before has it played so constructively and with such confidence. In answer to that the Scots have shed their diffidence, rolled up their sleeves and become the giant killers of the decade. It was the Scots that slew the French and the English and gave a gift to the Irish - and themselves - of a possible Six Nations Championship. No other nation would deserve it more for their victories have been king-makers.

In an organised way the Italians have swept from touch-line to touch-line, with more aplomb than the Scots have. Each country has scored four tries in the Six Nations so far this season.

Italy did well enough to feel cheated against Ireland in Dublin and well enough to have beaten Wales in Cardiff last weekend when they had the better of the second half in a drawn match. The Welsh beat the Scots in Cardiff as did the Irish in Dublin. If you took just those two matches, you would give Italy a real chance.

The Scots have been at their best under the Edinburgh gun, beating the strong at home and losing to those  theoretically weaker at home. It should be an even contest.

The two sets of tight forwards should weigh up well against each other. The Italians, even without their strong Argentinian Carlos Nieto, may well have the edge up front and this week they have outstanding hooker Fabio Ongaro back from his bout of tonsillitis.

The competition between the two sets of locks could be a feature of the match. The Scots may have the edge in the experience of Scott Murray and Nathan Hines but Marco Bortolami and Santiago Dellapè are big and athletic, and it would seem that the Italian hookers are better at finding the target at line-outs than the wayward Scots.

The Italians are again without Mauro Bergamasco who has been having a great season, his spirits lifted perhaps by the outstanding form of his baby brother in the centre, but even without him they were able to come away from Colin Charvis, Martyn Williams and Michael Owen - a trio of Lions - with honours even.

Up front Italy may just have the edge.

Scotland have changed both halves but there would seem little to choose between the two sets.

In the centre Mirco Bergamasco has been a revelation. Since he has moved in from the wing he has shown an array of offensive and defensive skills that had suffered neglect on the wing. He and Gonzalo Canale are a fine combination.

The Scottish wings seem stronger and more experienced than nippy little Ludovico Nitoglia and retreated scrum-half Pablo Canavosio.

And if the visitors bring on Simon Webster the Scots will have three wings better than both Italian wings. At fullback, too, they seem to have the edge. Hugo Southwell has a huge boot, bigger than Cristian Stoica, and, more accustomed to the fullback berth, his positional play is better.

Chris Paterson has now established himself as a goal-kicker of note, one of the most reliable in the Six Nations. Kicking opportunities should be about equal. In the Six Nations, Italy have conceded 36 penalties, Scotland 37. But Ramiro Pez was not great against Wales when his boot could well have won the match but he missed three penalty attempts.

Unit for unit and player for player, there is not much in it. It could just be a very exciting match.

Players to Watch: Apart from the scrum-halves, there is Mirco Bergamasco of Italy, perhaps the "find" of the 2006 Six Nations. Sean Lamont of Scotland will be involved. If he eschews a tendency to meander and takes the straight road he may well be in the goal area before the defence. Amongst the forwards Ali Hogg of Scotland is all concentrated intent, a physical presence, and Fabian Ongaro is strong, effective and good in the loose.

Head to Head: The contest between the pocket battleships, Paul Griffen of Italy and Chris Cusiter of Scotland could be fascinating - Griffen scruffy but effective, Cusiter suave but competitive. They will both have an impact on the game.

Prediction: Italy by two or three.
Totalbet.com prediction: Scotland by three points.

Recent results:

2005: Scotland won 18-10 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2004: Italy won 20-14 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2003: Scotland won 47-15 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2003: Scotland won 33-25 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2002: Scotland won 29-12 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2001: Scotland won 23-19 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
2000: Italy won 34-20 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
1999: Scotland won 30-12 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
1998: Italy won 25-21 in Treviso
1996: Scotland won 29-22 at Murrayfield, Edinburgh

The teams:

Italy: 15 Cristian Stoica, 14 Pablo Canavosio, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Mirco Bergamasco, 11 Ludovico Nitoglia, 10 Ramiro Pez, 9 Paul Griffen, 8 Josh Sole, 7 Maurizio Zaffiri, 6 Sergio Parisse, 5 Marco Bortolami (captain), 4 Santiago Dellapè, 3 Martín Castrogiovanni, 2 Fabio Ongaro, 1 Salvatore Perugini.
Replacements: 16 Carlo Festuccia, 17 Andrea Lo Cicero, 18 Carlo Del Fava, 19 A Zanni, 20 Simon Picone, 21 Rima Wakarua, 22 Ezio Galon

Scotland: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Chris Paterson, 13 Marcus di Rollo, 12 Andy Henderson, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Gordon Ross, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Simon Taylor, 7 Allister Hogg, 6 Jason White (captain), 5 Scott Murray, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Scott Lawson, 1 Gavin Kerr.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Craig Smith, 18 Alastair Kellock, 19 Jon Petrie, 20 Mike Blair, 21 Dan Parks, 22 Stuart Webster.

Date: Saturday, March 18
Venue: Stadio Flaminio, Rome
Kick-off: 14:30 (13:30 GMT)
Conditions: Scattered clouds with a high of 11°C dropping to 9°C and a wind from the southeast of 14 km/h freshening to 25 km/h 
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Touch judges: Alan Lewis (Ireland), Nigel Owens (Wales)
Television match official: Christophe Berdos (France)